Peanut Growers Cooperative Marketing Association Fall/Winter 2024 Update

PEANUT GROWERS COOPERATIVE MARKETING ASSOCIATION

Written by: Thomas R. “Dell” Cotton, Jr., Manager

National Peanut Crop Outlook for the 2024 Season

This is the time of the growing season when everyone’s attention turns to the potential size of the national crop. As we all know, that size is determined by two factors—the condition of the crop and the number of acres planted.

Crop condition and ultimate yield are nothing more than estimates at this point. Here in Virginia, we experienced a disastrous June with excessive heat and dry weather. Fortunately, a favorable spring helped establish a strong stand, and improved moisture during July has allowed the crop to recover and maintain good yield potential.

Other peanut-producing states have experienced conditions that have been either too dry or too wet, but I don’t put too much emphasis on those conditions at this stage. Weather from now until harvest will ultimately determine final yields—not necessarily what happened earlier in the season.

In fact, as I write this, Tropical Storm Debby is threatening to move up the coast and slow down, which is never what you want a storm to do.

The second factor determining crop size is planted acreage. While I am certainly interested in the national certified acreage figures, I am especially curious about Virginia.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) currently estimates that Virginia peanut acreage declined from last year’s 28,500 acres to 24,000 acres—a reduction of approximately 16%. Personally, I don’t believe that estimate accurately reflects the number of acres planted, although I have certainly been wrong before.

Nationally, there are the usual range of acreage estimates circulating throughout the industry. NASS began with an initial estimate of 1,757,000 planted acres, representing a 7% increase over last year.

Georgia was estimated at 850,000 acres, an increase of 10%. Additional increases were projected in Florida (+10,000 acres), Mississippi (+3,000 acres), South Carolina (+8,000 acres), and Texas (+15,000 acres).

To put those numbers into perspective, Georgia has not planted that many peanut acres since at least 2012. The previous high occurred in 2017 with 829,942 acres, largely due to the generic base acre provisions that existed at that time. While I’m unsure what has driven enthusiasm for this level of planting, I assume much of it relates to pricing in competing crops.

Nationally, the projected 1,757,000 planted acres would be second only to the 1,845,121 acres planted during 2017.

NASS has also projected the average U.S. peanut yield at 4,000 pounds per acre, which is certainly a reasonable estimate based on recent production history.

However, when that projected yield is combined with the estimated planted acreage, even accounting for increases in domestic use and peanut crushing, ending stocks are expected to increase significantly.

Historically, ending stocks around 750,000 tons have generally supported stronger farmer stock prices because demand remained relatively balanced with supply. Unfortunately, NASS currently projects ending stocks of approximately 1,239,000 tons, representing an increase of roughly 22.5% over the 2023-24 marketing year.

If those projections prove accurate, it would certainly not be welcome news for peanut producers.

USDA’s certified acreage report is expected to be released by mid-August. Hopefully, those numbers will reflect fewer planted acres than currently estimated and provide a more accurate picture of the 2024 peanut crop.