Supply and Demand

Written by: Ashley Collins

Reflecting on 2025 and Preparing for 2026: A Tale of Supply and Demand

This past September, we had record attendance at the North Carolina Peanut Growers Association Annual Meeting in Lewiston-Woodville. The new President and CEO of the American Peanut Council, Luke Blaustein, addressed both the general membership and our Board of Directors following lunch. The American Peanut Council is made up of grower organizations like the North Carolina Peanut Growers Association, shellers such as Birdsong and Sandy Land, peanut brokers, and equipment manufacturers like AMADAS. While APC advocates for the peanut industry in many ways, much of its work focuses on cultivating and maintaining export markets for U.S. peanuts.

During his remarks, Luke noted that one in every four peanuts is currently exported and that peanut exports have grown by 24 percent in volume over the past decade.

However, his message also made it clear that, with the consistent increase in peanut acreage across the country, that growth is not enough. Nationally, the United States continues to produce a surplus of peanuts, with approximately one million tons still in storage when the following year’s harvest begins. Expanding export opportunities remains one of the American Peanut Council’s highest priorities.

As I wrapped up the meeting that day, I shared a few statistics with the audience using an analogy that compared the 2025 peanut crop to college football in North Carolina.

Imagine there were sell-out crowds for every home football game played by NC State, UNC, Duke, ECU, Appalachian State, Western Carolina, and Wake Forest. If every fan consumed the average 7.3 pounds of peanuts per year, the peanuts grown in North Carolina during 2025 would be enough to feed those fans for forty full seasons.

That’s not 40 games. That’s 40 seasons of home football games across seven universities using only North Carolina’s peanut crop.

It is a remarkable way to visualize just how productive our growers have become, especially considering that 2025 was far from a perfect growing season.

There is no question that this level of production reflects improved varieties, better production practices, continued investment in research, and the sound management decisions made by growers year after year. North Carolina growers consistently produce a high-quality crop, and that reliability continues to make our peanuts desirable to buyers.

At the same time, production volume plays a major role in determining future market conditions.

Ultimately, peanut prices are driven by the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Demand comes from shellers, manufacturers, exporters, and consumers. Supply comes from the number of peanuts produced.

North Carolina occupies a unique position because most of our crop consists of Virginia-type peanuts, which are primarily consumed domestically. On average, however, nearly 20 percent of North Carolina’s crop is exported. Even after removing those exports from the earlier football analogy, our growers still produced enough peanuts to feed sold-out football crowds for approximately thirty seasons.

When supply and demand remain balanced, markets generally support stronger grower payments. When supply exceeds demand—even with an excellent-quality crop—prices naturally come under pressure.

That football analogy illustrates just how productive our growers have become. Producing enough peanuts to supply decades of sold-out stadiums demonstrates both the strength of our production system and the challenge of keeping demand moving alongside it.

Grower payment is influenced by much more than yield and quality. It is shaped by how those factors interact with overall market conditions. Conversations surrounding acreage decisions, carryover stocks, export opportunities, and demand growth all influence the contracts ultimately offered to growers.

When supply continues to outpace demand, planting additional acres does not necessarily translate into greater long-term profitability. While contracts may be available, growers ultimately carry the production risk if markets soften or prices decline.

Planting every available acre may seem like the safest decision in the short term, but collectively those decisions contribute to the overall supply that influences prices for everyone. Individual decisions eventually become regional outcomes.

In years of abundant production, profitability often depends more on controlling costs and maximizing net return per acre than simply producing additional pounds. Marginal acres may produce peanuts, but they do not always produce profit.

Research continues to provide opportunities to improve profitability as well. New peanut varieties requiring fewer inputs are becoming available, but realizing those savings depends upon growers adapting management practices that allow those benefits to reach the bottom line.

These are not easy decisions, and every farming operation is different. As we begin looking toward the 2026 crop, it is important to remember that long-term profitability will depend not only on how much we produce, but also on how well production aligns with market demand.

This is also why the work of organizations such as the American Peanut Council, National Peanut Board, and your state association remains so important.

Research continues improving production efficiency and sustainability. Export customers increasingly expect documentation demonstrating sustainable production practices, and APC has launched the Sustainable U.S. Peanuts Initiative to help provide that information. However, greater grower participation is needed before many of those claims can be fully documented, while competing peanut-producing countries continue advancing their own sustainability efforts.

Marketing programs that encourage domestic peanut consumption, including efforts supporting early peanut introduction to help reduce allergy risk, along with policy engagement that protects growers during difficult market conditions, all contribute to strengthening demand.

Every piece of the puzzle matters. Understanding the relationship between supply and demand helps explain why markets move the way they do and why the work happening beyond the farm gate is just as important as the work taking place in the field. Maintaining that balance is a responsibility shared by every segment of our industry.