Reflecting on 2025 and Preparing for 2026 A Tale of Supply and Demand

Written by: Ashley Collins

Reflecting on 2025 and Preparing for 2026
A Tale of Supply and Demand

This past September, we had record attendance at the NC Peanut Growers’ Association annual meeting in Lewiston-Woodville. The new President and CEO of the American Peanut Council, Luke Blaustein, addressed both the general membership and our Board of Directors, who met following lunch. Membership of the American Peanut Council comprises a cross-section of grower organizations, such as the NC Peanut Growers Association; shellers like Birdsong and Sandy Land; peanut brokers; and equipment manufacturers like AMADAS. While APC advocates for the peanut industry in many ways, most of its work focuses on cultivating and maintaining export markets for US Peanuts.

In his comments to the audience that day, Blaustein noted that one in four peanuts is currently exported, and over the last decade, peanut exports have grown by 24% in volume.  

However, his message indicated that, given the consistent national increase in peanut acreage, this is not sufficient. Nationally, we produce a surplus of peanuts in the US (approximately a million tons are still in storage when the following year’s crop begins harvest), so finding new overseas markets to sustain US peanut production is a top priority for Blaustein.

As I closed out the meeting that day, I also shared a few statistics with the audience. I chose to frame the numbers with an analogy between college football in NC and the 2025 crop.

Imagine this:

Suppose there were sell-out crowds for every home football game played at NC State, UNC, Duke, ECU, Appalachian, Western Carolina, and Wake Forest. Each person in those stands consumed 7.3 pounds of peanuts per year (the average per capita consumption in the US); the peanuts grown in North Carolina in 2025 would be enough to feed fans for forty full seasons.

That’s not 40 games.

That’s 40 seasons of home football games across seven teams.

Using just North Carolina’s crop.

It’s a striking way to think about how productive North Carolina peanut farmers are and how large the 2025 crop truly is, even without an ‘ideal’ growing season.

There’s no question that this level of production reflects many things done right: improved varieties, better agronomic practices, investments in research, and growers’ management decisions year after year. North Carolina growers consistently produce a high-quality crop, and that reliability is one of the reasons buyers depend on us. But production volume—while a point of pride—also plays a critical role in how the market works and what lies ahead for the future crop.

Where Supply and Demand Come In

Ultimately, peanut prices are driven by the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Demand is driven by the tonnage of peanuts required by shellers, manufacturers, and consumers.

Supply is driven by how many peanuts are produced. We have a niche in North Carolina: the majority of our crop is the Virginia-type, which is often consumed domestically, but on average, nearly 20% of NC’s crop is exported out of the US. If you remove 20% from the earlier analogy, NC farmers produced enough peanuts for 30 seasons of sold-out crowds, again, if every fan did their part and ate 7.3 pounds per year. 

When supply and demand are in balance, the market can support stronger grower payments. When supply outpaces demand—even when the crop is high-quality—it puts downward pressure on prices.

That football analogy helps put this into perspective: producing enough peanuts to feed tens of thousands of fans for three decades means we are very good at what we do, and our supply is outpacing demand.

Why This Matters to Growers

Grower payment is not just about yield or quality alone—it’s about how those factors interact with the broader market. That’s why conversations about acreage decisions, carryover stocks, export opportunities, and demand growth are critical to shaping the terms offered to growers in contracts.

In an environment where supply clearly outpaces demand, more acres do not automatically translate into higher long-term profits. While shellers offer contracts for additional acres, growers ultimately bear the production risk if market conditions soften or payments tighten.

Planting every acre offered can feel like the safest choice in the moment, but when supply remains high, that approach can contribute to the very conditions that pressure prices in future years. In other words, individual acreage decisions, when aggregated across the region, shape the market in which all growers and shellers operate.

This is where margin matters more than yield alone. North Carolina growers have proven they can achieve high yields. But in years of abundant supply, one must consider shifting focus to cost control and net return per acre rather than simply total pounds produced. Marginal acres—may produce peanuts, but not necessarily profit. Research is also helping in this area. We have peanut varieties available that require fewer inputs, but growers must be willing to adapt production practices to realize those benefits on their balance sheet.   

These are not easy decisions, and they vary by operation. But as we look toward 2026, it is essential to recognize that long-term profitability will come not just from how much we can grow—but from how thoughtfully we align our production with market demand.

The Role of the Industry

This is also why the work of groups like the American Peanut Council, National Peanut Board, and your state association is so important:

Research to improve efficiency and sustainability – our export partners are demanding data that proves growers follow sustainable practices, and APC has launched the Sustainable US Peanut Initiative to help make factual statements about US peanut production. However, more growers are needed to participate before factual claims can be made, and other peanut-producing countries are on the offensive and closing in.

Marketing efforts that increase domestic demand, such as early introduction of peanuts to prevent allergies (recommended to every mother in all pediatric offices), and policy engagement that protects growers during market swings. Every piece plays a role in helping supply and demand stay aligned.

Understanding that balance helps explain why prices move the way they do—and why industry efforts beyond the farm gate are so important to the future of peanut farming in our state. Keeping supply and demand in check is the responsibility of all sectors of the industry.